16 hours ago
- Birth rates are declining globally, faster than UN predictions, with South Korea's 2023 births at 230,000 versus a forecast of 350,000.
- Key drivers include changing social norms via social media, the shift to service-based economies, the educational arms race, and rising housing costs.
- Fertility has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) in most of North America, South America, Europe, and southern/eastern Asia.
- The world population is expected to peak around 2055 and then enter structural decline.
- Declining fertility reduces energy consumption and allows urban redesign, but creates severe challenges for Social Security, schools, hospitals, and local communities.
- Sustaining welfare states through immigration faces political backlash and potential loss of cultural identity, as seen in Japan and Catalonia.
- AI and robotics may help ease economic transitions, but cannot replace social institutions like local pubs that decline with population loss.