18 hours ago
- The claim that the Monaco Grand Prix winner is determined 90% of the time by starting position is false; data from the past 25 years shows first-row winners only 80% of the time.
- Monaco has a higher first-row win rate (80%) than some tracks, but it is not the highest; other tracks like Spain (86%) have higher rates.
- The effect of starting position is confounded by equipage capability (driver and car team performance), which influences both qualifying results and race wins.
- Using a proxy for equipage capability (worst qualifying round results), a logistic regression model for 2022–2025 shows that when holding capability constant, pole position has a 53% win chance on average, while Monaco gives a 70% win chance from pole.
- Monaco's pole position advantage (70%) is significant but not exceptional compared to other tracks like Australia (88%) or Canada (74%).
- The original claim of nine-out-of-ten determination is an overstatement; Monaco is decided by qualifying to some extent, but driver skill and other factors still matter.