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- Married men earn a premium over single men, known as the Marriage Premium.
- Hypotheses for this premium include anticipation, reverse causality, spurious association, and household specialization.
- Analysis of NLSY data shows wages rise before marriage but do not accelerate after, and decline before divorce.
- Unexpected marriages and later marriages show no premium, contradicting causal explanations.
- The evidence supports selection: men marry when already mature and earning higher wages.
- The marriage premium reflects maturation, not a causal effect of marriage.
- Claims that marriage raises wages should be treated skeptically.