- The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated, moving away from the June 17 MoU, with Trump's objectives clouded by confusion and U-turns.
- The U.S. aims to regain control of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially extending bombing campaigns, but this risks pushing oil prices toward $90 a barrel and harming Trump's midterm election prospects.
- Trump proposed and then abandoned a plan for the U.S. to charge tolls for clearing the strait, embarrassing allies who view free navigation as a cornerstone of international law.
- International opposition to tolls was strong, including from the IMO, which reaffirmed that the strait should remain free of charges, and U.S. officials like Marco Rubio.
- Trump attempted to cover the retreat by claiming Gulf leaders would invest in the U.S. economy, but this commitment appears unbankable and fictional.
- The U.S. remains in a weakened position after nearly five months of war, with 6,000 sailors trapped, Iran controlling the strait, and the nuclear agreement deadline by August 17 looking unrealistic.
- Iran continues to attack U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, with war costs estimated at $100 billion, and hawks on both sides believe escalating tensions can be borne.
- Critics argue the U.S. lacks a clear strategy for the strait, with failures in the MoU, such as allowing Iran to arrange safe passage, contributing to the ongoing crisis.
- The debate over the strait has broadened to Gulf security, with Oman's foreign minister criticizing U.S. policy as flawed and costly, warning that threats come from outside the Gulf, like Tel Aviv.