The AI bubble is 17 times bigger than the dot-com bust
a day ago
- #Market Hype
- #Economic Skepticism
- #AI Bubble
- The concept of an 'AI bubble' is itself considered a bubble, with some analysts claiming it has already burst.
- Despite skepticism, AI startups without profits have gained nearly $1 trillion in market value over the past year.
- Julien Garran argues the current AI frenzy is the 'biggest and most dangerous bubble the world has ever seen,' comparing it unfavorably to past bubbles.
- Garran believes large language model AI applications can never be commercial due to their inherent limitations and scalability issues.
- AI's productivity benefits are questioned, with Garran suggesting it may only replace 'bullsh*t jobs' without broader utility.
- The AI ecosystem is seen as unsustainable, with most players heavily loss-making and reliant on continuous funding.
- Investor willingness to fund AI startups is diminishing, leaving few major backers like SoftBank and foreign states.
- Garran remains skeptical about AI's hype, suggesting the bubble is nearing its peak but hasn't started deflating yet.
- If wrong, Garran acknowledges two scenarios: prolonged economic misallocation or a transformative 'superintelligence' with unpredictable societal impacts.