1 in 30 – Artemis, Greatness, and Risk
5 hours ago
- #NASA Risk
- #Artemis Apollo
- #Space Safety
- The Commercial Crew Program sets a 1 in 270 overall Loss of Crew (LOC) probability threshold for SpaceX's Dragon, with 1 in 1,000 for ascent and entry phases.
- NASA's Inspector General reports a 1 in 30 LOC threshold for Artemis missions overall, and 1 in 40 for lunar operations.
- Apollo missions were high-risk, with internal estimates of as low as a 20% survival chance, contributing to the cancellation of later flights.
- Every Apollo, Gemini, and Mercury mission faced significant in-flight emergencies, highlighting the inherent dangers of early space exploration.
- Modern society is accustomed to extreme safety standards, making the acceptance of real risk in space exploration a cultural shift.
- The Apollo program succeeded due to immense resources and effort, yet still resulted in astronaut fatalities and near-misses.
- Exploration involves confronting and accepting real risks, as emphasized by astronaut John Young's perspective on spaceflight safety.