Spatiotemporal Distributions and Forecasts of Working-Age Stroke Across 953 Locations, 1980 to 2040 - PubMed
4 hours ago
- #public health
- #stroke
- #working-age population
- The study examines spatiotemporal distributions and forecasts of working-age stroke (15-64 years) across 953 locations from 1980 to 2040.
- Stroke prevalence in the working-age population remained stable globally, while death and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates declined during the observation period (1980-2021).
- The Philippines saw nationwide increases, with 91.5% of provinces showing rising prevalence, 26.8% for DALYs, and 39.0% for death rates.
- In 2021, low- to high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) countries ranked high for prevalence, while low-SDI countries dominated in deaths (73.5%) and DALYs (76.5%).
- Cross-national inequality analyses revealed prevalence concentrated in higher-SDI countries, while DALY and death burdens were higher in lower-SDI countries.
- By 2021, over 90% of countries failed to achieve optimal working-age stroke burden levels.
- Projections to 2040 suggest stable global prevalence and declining DALY and death rates, but rising rates are expected in 12.8% of countries for prevalence, 12.3% for DALYs, and 16.3% for deaths, mainly in low- to high-middle-SDI regions.
- The study emphasizes the need for context-specific policies in prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation.