Pascal's Wager
18 days ago
- #decision-theory
- #philosophy
- #theology
- Pascal's Wager is a philosophical argument by Blaise Pascal, suggesting that belief in God is a rational gamble due to the potential infinite benefits versus finite losses.
- The argument posits that if God exists, believers gain eternal happiness (Heaven), while non-believers face eternal punishment (Hell). If God doesn't exist, believers lose little, and non-believers gain nothing.
- Pascal's Wager is found in his posthumous work 'Pensées' and is considered an early application of decision theory, pragmatism, and existentialism.
- Critics argue that the wager fails to prove God's existence, raises issues of inconsistent revelations across religions, and questions the authenticity of belief motivated by potential rewards.
- Pascal acknowledges human uncertainty in reason, science, religion, and skepticism, framing belief as a necessary choice despite inherent doubt.
- The wager's decision matrix shows that belief in God dominates disbelief due to the infinite potential gain versus finite loss, making it a rational choice under uncertainty.
- Pascal advises those struggling to believe to act as if they believe (e.g., attending mass), which may naturally lead to genuine faith over time.
- Later interpretations extend the wager to climate change, framing action against climate change as a rational choice given potential catastrophic outcomes.