Y'all are over-complicating these AI-risk arguments
14 hours ago
- #intelligence
- #AI-risk
- #existential-threat
- The author presents a simple argument for AI-risk by comparing it to the arrival of aliens with an IQ of 300, suggesting that such intelligence would naturally be concerning.
- The complex AI-risk argument involves multiple steps like fast takeoff, alignment difficulty, and strategic advantage, which the author finds overcomplicated and overconfident.
- The simple argument leverages existing human intuitions about the dangers of more intelligent entities, making it more convincing and easier to understand.
- The author identifies the crux of AI-risk disagreement: whether people truly believe AI with an IQ of 300 and human-like capabilities could emerge.
- Poll data shows that concern about AI-risk is not fringe, with significant percentages of people worried about AI's potential to harm humanity.
- The author argues against watering down arguments for optics, advocating for presenting what one genuinely believes rather than manipulating perceptions.
- The complex argument's middle version suggests that if things go wrong, they will likely follow the outlined scenario, but the author finds other bad scenarios plausible too.