Nuclear brinkmanship usually works. It's also dangerous

10 hours ago

Nuclear brinkmanship is effective but highly dangerous, as even a small chance of catastrophic outcomes is unacceptable.
President Trump's recent escalatory threats towards Iran, including ambiguous nuclear implications, raised the risk of an existential conflict.
Estimates placed a non-zero probability (e.g., 3%) of a nuclear strike, highlighting the severity of the situation despite eventual de-escalation.
The episode underscores the risks of an erratic, unchecked leader with nuclear authority, surrounded by sycophantic advisors.
Even if threats are often bluffs, their success reinforces dangerous behavior, and the potential for miscalculation or escalation remains high.
Iran's response, including potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the fog of war increase long-term risks in repeated such scenarios.

Hasty Briefsbeta