Where are all the trillion dollar biotechs?
9 days ago
- #aging
- #drug-development
- #biotech
- Biotech industry faces declining returns on R&D investments, with the number of new drugs approved per $1 billion halving every nine years since 1950.
- Only three drugs—Humira, Keytruda, and Pfizer’s COVID vaccine—have reached $20 billion-per-year sales, highlighting the challenge of achieving blockbuster outcomes.
- Genetic targets show promise but are limited by tradeoffs between small populations with high-confidence targets and large populations with low-confidence targets.
- Rare disease drugs like those for SMA, cystic fibrosis, and hemophilia A can be commercially successful, but many companies still fail despite approvals.
- Drug repurposing offers potential but has inconsistent success rates, with systematic attempts performing no better than traditional drug discovery.
- AI in biotech is expected to assist drug discovery but may not significantly reduce costs or time until clinical-stage challenges are addressed.
- Age-related diseases represent the largest market potential but are difficult to treat due to complex biology and lack of effective heuristics.
- New therapeutic modalities and regulatory frameworks are needed to unlock progress in treating aging and other complex diseases.
- The biotech industry needs cheaper trials, adaptive regulations, and innovative modalities to achieve trillion-dollar outcomes.