Probability Calculator: Chances That Your Friend Bails Tonight

3 hours ago

Texting 'I’m 99% sure I can make it tonight.' actually means a 50% chance they’ll make it.
'I’ll for sure be there!' translates to an 83% chance they’ll show up.
Phrases like 'I could be convinced . . .' or 'I’m 50/50 on going tonight.' have hidden meanings indicating low or moderate likelihood.
Claims of '100% certainty' often result in last-minute cancellations or delays.
Excuses like being tired or coming straight from work usually mean they won’t show up.
Using 'down' instead of 'in' halves the reported probability (e.g., '80% down' = 40% chance).
Questions like 'We still on for tonight?' often signal cancellations due to personal reasons.
Specific requests (e.g., 'Bring pashmina...') usually indicate reliable attendees, like parents.
Low-probability statements (e.g., '10% chance') sometimes result in surprising appearances.
Last-minute texts like 'Hey u here?' mean the friend actually showed up despite doubts.

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