How Soon Will the Seas Rise?
8 hours ago
- #Antarctica
- #sea level rise
- #climate change
- NASA announced in 2014 that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is in irreversible retreat, leading to potential sea-level rise of over 1 meter initially and up to 5 meters if the entire sheet collapses.
- A 2016 study suggested ice cliffs could collapse rapidly, accelerating sea-level rise to over 2 meters by 2100 and 15 meters by 2300 under high emissions.
- Scientists debate the timeline of ice sheet collapse, with some supporting rapid destabilization while others argue for slower retreat over centuries.
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is uniquely vulnerable due to its grounding below sea level, making it susceptible to marine ice sheet instability (MISI).
- Ice shelves like Larsen B, which collapsed in 2002, show how rapid ice loss can lead to faster glacier flow and sea-level rise.
- Marine ice cliff instability (MICI) theory suggests tall ice cliffs could collapse in a chain reaction, but critics argue stabilizing factors like ice mélange and bedrock rebound may slow retreat.
- Recent studies indicate Earth's bedrock rebound could either mitigate or exacerbate sea-level rise, depending on the speed of ice retreat.
- Surface meltwater and hydrofracturing are emerging concerns, as they can weaken ice shelves and accelerate collapse.
- IPCC projects sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter by 2100, but MICI could double this if it occurs.
- Uncertainty remains, but higher emissions increase the risk of rapid and severe sea-level rise.