I Stopped Being a Climate Catastrophist
17 days ago
- #catastrophism
- #energy policy
- #climate change
- The author, Ted Nordhaus, reflects on his past views about climate change, admitting he no longer believes in the catastrophic scenarios he once endorsed, such as the collapse of the Amazon or resource wars triggered by climate change.
- Nordhaus highlights that projections of extreme warming (e.g., 5 degrees by 2100) were based on implausible assumptions about population growth, economic growth, and technological stagnation, which have not materialized.
- Current estimates suggest worst-case warming by the end of the century is around 3 degrees or less, yet the climate advocacy community has shifted its focus to catastrophizing these lower levels of warming.
- Despite global warming, mortality from climate and weather extremes has significantly decreased due to improved infrastructure, technology, and economic development, which mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
- Nordhaus critiques the climate movement's focus on attributing present-day extreme weather events to climate change, arguing that natural variability and socio-economic factors play a much larger role in disaster outcomes.
- The author questions the plausibility of catastrophic tipping points, such as the collapse of the Gulf Stream or rapid ice sheet disintegration, noting these processes would unfold over centuries, not decades.
- Nordhaus points out the social and professional incentives within the climate advocacy community to maintain catastrophic narratives, as dissenting views are often marginalized or penalized.
- The article concludes by arguing that the case for clean energy and innovation does not require catastrophic climate rhetoric, as historical trends show a natural progression toward cleaner technologies independent of climate fears.