Projected warming will exceed the long-term thermal limits of rice cultivation
4 hours ago
- #thermal-limits
- #climate-change
- #rice-cultivation
- Rice has consistent thermal limits with mean annual temperature rarely exceeding 28°C and warm-season maximum temperature rarely exceeding 33°C over its 9000-year cultivation history.
- Future climate projections indicate that by 2100, areas exceeding these thermal thresholds in Asia's major rice-producing nations could expand by 10 to 30 times, threatening food security.
- Archaeological and contemporary data show rice's upper temperature limits have remained stable despite genetic diversification and geographic expansion, with adaptations primarily to cooler climates.
- Genetic offset analysis suggests both indica and japonica rice subspecies face significant maladaptation risks under projected warming, with limited capacity for rapid thermal adaptation.
- The study highlights that shifting cultivation northward is insufficient to offset impacts, as billions depend on rice in vulnerable regions, requiring urgent breeding and policy interventions.