Are We Doomed?
10 days ago
- #demographics
- #aging-society
- #population-decline
- People are living longer and having fewer children, leading to societal challenges like aging populations and depopulation.
- Japan exemplifies these trends, with a rapidly growing number of centenarians and a declining birth rate (TFR ~1).
- A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below 2 leads to population decline, as seen in South Korea (TFR 0.75) and other developed nations.
- Depopulation and climate change share similarities: both are slow-moving, global, and unevenly experienced crises.
- Historically, fears of overpopulation (e.g., Ehrlich's 'Population Bomb') were misplaced; the real issue is now declining birth rates.
- Religion and geography influence fertility rates, with exceptions like Indonesia (TFR ~2) and Israel (TFR ~3).
- Policy efforts to boost birth rates (e.g., incentives, childcare support) have largely failed to reverse sub-replacement fertility.
- Women's education and empowerment reduce fertility, but societal pressures and economic costs also deter childbearing.
- Aging societies face economic and political shifts, with older populations influencing policies and resource allocation.
- Long-term solutions (e.g., space colonization, AI) are speculative, while nuclear threats and environmental crises loom.