Smartphone Mkt to Decline 13% in '26, Largest Drop Ever Due to Memory Shortage

3 hours ago

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 12.9% YoY in 2026 to 1.12 billion units, the lowest in over a decade.
The decline is attributed to a memory shortage crisis, impacting the entire consumer electronics industry.
Low-end Android manufacturers will suffer the most, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate the crisis.
The memory crisis marks a structural reset of the market, with smaller players likely to exit and low-end vendors facing sharp declines.
Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 in 2026, making the sub-$100 segment uneconomical.
Regions with high concentrations of low-end smartphones, like Middle East & Africa, will face the steepest declines.
A modest recovery of 2% is forecast for 2027, followed by a stronger rebound of 5.2% YoY in 2028.

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