Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

4 hours ago

Several newly created Polymarket accounts bet nearly $70,000 on a US-Iran ceasefire, potentially indicating insider knowledge.
One account placed a winning bet on US strikes against Iran in February, raising suspicions of insider trading.
The accounts were created around the time President Trump hinted at winding down military operations with Iran.
Experts suggest the betting patterns, including wallet-splitting, resemble insider trading tactics.
Polymarket's ceasefire probability surged from 6% to 24% in days, with over $21 million wagered on the outcome.
Prediction markets like Polymarket are increasingly used in modern warfare, with concerns over war profiteering and insider trading.
Polymarket faces criticism for facilitating insider trading and spreading misinformation despite branding itself as 'News 2.0'.
Users on Polymarket's Discord channels shared tips on monetizing the war, including following historically profitable traders.
The ceasefire bet requires official public confirmation from both the US and Iran to be settled.

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