The Horrors That Could Lie Ahead If Vaccines Vanish
17 hours ago
- #vaccination
- #public health
- #disease modeling
- If polio vaccine became unavailable, Stanford's model predicts an average of 23,000 people could become paralyzed over 25 years, with a range from 0 to over 70,000 cases.
- Without measles vaccine, the model estimates about 290,000 deaths over 25 years, compared to only 6 deaths in the U.S. over the past 25 years when the vaccine was available.
- Loss of rubella vaccine could lead to an average of 41,000 babies born with congenital rubella syndrome over 25 years, with cases starting to climb after about 15 years.
- In a worst-case scenario without diphtheria vaccine, the model shows an average of 138,000 deaths, but potentially over 1 million deaths in 25 years, though it's also possible no one might die.
- The modeling suggests that even a 5% increase in measles vaccination could virtually wipe out an impending explosion in cases, while a 50% drop in current rates could lead to the return of all four diseases.
- Researchers used current vaccination rates from 2004-2023 and ran 2,000 simulations for each disease, with results presented as averages and ranges within a 95% uncertainty interval.
- The study was prompted by concerns that policy changes under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could reduce vaccine availability, transforming a government that once championed vaccines into one questioning their safety.