Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds
12 days ago
- #global warming
- #Amoc collapse
- #climate change
- The collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is no longer a low-likelihood event, making urgent fossil fuel cuts necessary.
- Amoc, a key part of the global climate system, is at its weakest in 1,600 years due to the climate crisis.
- New models predict a tipping point for Amoc shutdown within decades, with collapse occurring 50-100 years later.
- Under high emissions, 70% of models show collapse; intermediate emissions show 37%, and low emissions show 25%.
- Amoc collapse would disrupt tropical rainfall, cause extreme winters and droughts in Europe, and raise sea levels by 50cm.
- Scientists warn that even a 10% chance of collapse is too high, with tipping points likely in 10-20 years.
- Observations show a downward trend in the North Atlantic, consistent with model projections.
- The study used IPCC models, finding that many reach a tipping point soon, leading to inevitable shutdown due to feedback loops.
- Arctic warming slows ocean cooling, reducing water density and sinking rates, creating a feedback loop that weakens Amoc.
- Lack of direct ocean observations and model variations create uncertainty about the exact timing of Amoc collapse.
- Even if collapse is unlikely this century, major weakening is expected, with serious impacts on Europe's climate.