Six Big Bets
a day ago
- #risk management
- #startups
- #big bets
- Limited big bets in a lifetime due to alignment of risk tolerance, energy, capital, and conviction.
- Startups offer asymmetric exposure to unlimited upside with limited downside, but opportunities are finite.
- Six key moments for taking big bets:
- 1. Age 18: Naïve Conviction - Ignorance as an asset, time, energy, and willingness to look foolish.
- 2. Age 23: Facing Reality - Exposure to institutional workings, noticing inefficiencies, early traction.
- 3. Age 28: Informed Speed - Understanding tacit knowledge, network formation, high energy and competence.
- 4. Age 36: Lateral Leap - Deep domain expertise, interest in mispriced problems, experience over speed.
- 5. Age 42: Capitalized Execution - Last window for venture-scale startups, deliberate and hypothesis-driven bets.
- 6. Age 51: Durable Craft - Focus on durability, cash flow, reputation, and compounding trust.
- Core insight: Structure life to be exposed to upside, not continuous risk.
- Mistakes: Not leveraging current advantages and forgetting which phase you're in.
- Life is about accumulating skills, credibility, and capital for the next big bet.