The sisters "paradox" – counter-intuitive probability
13 days ago
- #conditional-probability
- #probability
- #paradox
- The problem discusses the probability of both children being girls in a family with two children, given that at least one is a girl.
- A common wrong answer is 0.5, but the correct probability is 1/3, as there are three equally likely combinations when excluding the Boy-Boy scenario.
- The concept of 'sample space' is crucial for solving such probability problems, helping to list all possible outcomes.
- The problem's complexity increases with variations, such as knowing the eldest child's gender, which changes the sample space and probability.
- Testing probability theories through computer simulations is recommended to validate counter-intuitive results.
- The article emphasizes the importance of precision in assumptions, avoiding reliance on 'common sense', and the potential for controversy in probability problems.