British AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competition
5 hours ago
- #Forecasting
- #AI
- #Competition
- An AI startup, ManticAI, ranked in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup, an international forecasting competition.
- The competition involved predicting 60 events, including political outcomes and natural disasters.
- AI's performance is improving but still lags behind the best human forecasters.
- ManticAI uses multiple machine-learning models to break down forecasting problems.
- AI forecasting excels in persistent, data-heavy tasks but struggles with complex, interrelated events.
- Human forecasters still outperform AI in areas requiring judgment and intuition.
- Experts believe AI could match or surpass human forecasters by 2029.
- AI systems can help mitigate groupthink by offering divergent predictions.
- The future of forecasting may involve collaboration between humans and AI.