Trump's $100k H1B visa: big tech wins, startups lose
4 hours ago
- #H1B Visa
- #Economic Impact
- #Immigration Policy
- The new $100,000 fee for H1B visa petitions will likely collapse the program, reducing applications by over 90%.
- U.S. firms will bifurcate their response: tech and finance majors will reserve visas for 'superstar' talent, while IT services firms will accelerate offshoring.
- The policy will create a cumulative shortfall of ~154,000 high-skilled workers over three years, leading to a $100B GDP loss.
- Lost tax revenues are projected to exceed $13.5B, with an additional loss of ~385,000 local service jobs due to multiplier effects.
- The policy will strengthen global tech hubs (India, Canada, Eastern Europe) at the expense of U.S. innovation leadership.
- Startups will be disproportionately affected, as the $100K fee is untenable for early-stage companies, stifling innovation.
- Alternative visas (L-1, O-1) will become more prominent but are not scalable solutions for most firms.
- Long-term consequences include a hollowing out of U.S. tech talent density and a shift of R&D to offshore centers.