US-Iranian War: a best case scenario
7 hours ago
- #Political Analysis
- #War Strategy
- #US-Iran Conflict
- Iran is not an autocracy; it has a complex regime with distributed power, so removing leaders does not collapse the system.
- Iran is governed by an intellectual elite, giving them an advantage over less knowledgeable adversaries.
- The regime enjoys substantial popular support, which increases under foreign attack, rallying people around the flag.
- A surprise attack on Iran fails, leading to a protracted Vietnam-style war, suggesting accelerating that scenario to minimize losses.
- Future U.S.-Iran relations could be based on mutual respect, but current policy is flawed and based on insane premises.
- The U.S. faces pressure due to economic damage from a closed strait, and ending the war might require blaming figures without appearing weak.
- Historical comparisons, like Israel's misassessments of Iran, highlight recurring errors in underestimating Iran's resilience and nationalism.