Development and external validation of a predictive model for postoperative recurrence of Crohn's disease in the biologic era - PubMed
7 hours ago
- #postoperative recurrence
- #Crohn's disease
- #biologic prophylaxis
- The study developed and validated a predictive model for postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease (CD) patients undergoing ileocolonic resection, in the context of increased biologic therapy use.
- Key risk factors for endoscopic recurrence within one year after surgery included male sex, active smoking, previous ileocolonic resection, and prior exposure to one or more biologics.
- Postoperative biologic prophylaxis significantly reduced recurrence risk, independent of patient risk factors, with an odds ratio of 0.31.
- A predictive nomogram from multivariable analysis achieved an AUC of 0.72, which was consistent in external validation across two international cohorts.
- Clinically significant recurrence rates increased over time: 22.9% at 3 years, 36.5% at 5 years, and 53.2% at 10 years, linked to early endoscopic recurrence severity.