Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden
2 days ago
- #Technology
- #AI
- #Automation
- Steam engines were invented in 1700 and improved steadily over 200 years, but horses didn't notice until 90% disappeared between 1930-1950.
- Computer chess improved steadily from 1985, with human grandmasters winning 90% of games in 2000 but losing 90% by 2010.
- Global AI capital expenditure is doubling yearly, currently at 2% of US GDP, with significant impacts on jobs.
- At Anthropic, Claude AI rapidly replaced human roles, answering 30,000 questions/month compared to humans' 4,000, at much lower cost.
- The speaker reflects on horses' rapid decline post-1920 and fears AI may displace human jobs even faster.