Temperatures expected to remain at or near record levels in coming five years
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- Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years (2025-2029).
- There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- An 80% chance exists that one year in 2025-2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
- Long-term warming (20-year average) remains below 1.5°C, but the 2015-2034 average is predicted at 1.44°C.
- Arctic warming will continue to exceed the global average.
- Predicted precipitation anomalies include wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions in the Amazon.
- The WMO report highlights growing climate risks, including extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ecosystem impacts.
- The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold refers to long-term warming, not single-year exceedances.
- Sea ice reductions are expected in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.