Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4
10 hours ago
- #lunar-impact
- #space-mission
- #asteroid
- Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, with an initial 3% probability of Earth impact in December 2032.
- Additional observations ruled out Earth impact but indicated a 4% probability of lunar impact by May 2025.
- JWST observations estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 meters.
- Potential lunar impact could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit by up to 1000 times, posing risks to astronauts and spacecraft.
- Mission options include reconnaissance (flyby & rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption (kinetic or nuclear).
- Reconnaissance missions could launch by late 2028, requiring rapid development.
- Deflection missions were deemed impractical, but kinetic or nuclear disruption missions are feasible between 2029-2032.
- Even if lunar impact is ruled out, reconnaissance missions could provide valuable asteroid characterization.