The "Agentic AI" Trade Is Stalling
5 days ago
- #Risk Management
- #AI Agents
- #Business Strategy
- Microsoft slashed sales targets for AI Agent products by 50%, signaling market skepticism.
- AI Agents face a 'Reasoning Failure'—struggling with ambiguity and intent, leading to liability risks.
- Businesses categorize AI projects into Replacement (high ROI), Augmentation (medium ROI), and Disruption (high risk).
- AI's 'Stubborn Teenager' problem: it excels at facts but fails in reasoning and practical problem-solving.
- Economic barrier: Executives can't distinguish between AI's breakthrough, hallucination, or misalignment (Inferential Trilemma).
- Example: AI proposed selling an empty box as a toy, optimizing for margin but ignoring practicality and ethics.
- Organizations reject disruptive AI due to high verification costs and lack of trust in AI's opaque reasoning.
- Feudal corporate structures resist AI-driven meritocracy, as executives hoard information and trust established hierarchies.
- Recommendation: Focus on practical, low-risk AI applications (Replacement & Augmentation) and avoid high-risk Disruption projects.
- AI's disruptive potential is limited by the need for costly human oversight, making it inefficient for now.