Mapping global avian influenza risk patterns through waterbird activity entropy - PubMed
4 days ago
- #avian influenza
- #global risk assessment
- #waterbird activity
- Avian influenza viruses (AIV) pose a major zoonotic threat with pandemic potential.
- Waterbird activity entropy (WAE) is proposed as an indicator of waterbird activity intensity based on monthly distributions of 779 species worldwide.
- WAE demonstrated high explanative power (AUC = 0.87 ± 0.001) for global avian influenza cases, particularly for H5N1.
- AIV exposure hotspots cover 14% of global land area, with significant hotspots in the USA, EU, China, and India.
- Sub-Saharan Africa has >300 Mha of hotspots area (15% globally) but reports <1% of global cases, highlighting surveillance gaps.
- The WAE-based framework enhances AIV risk assessment by incorporating waterbird residency time, offering insights for anticipating AIV emergence and improving surveillance.