Winter 2025/2026 weather outlook
4 hours ago
- #La Niña
- #Polar Vortex
- #Winter Forecast
- Winter 2025/2026 forecast predicts a colder winter for parts of the US, Canada, and Europe.
- Analog forecasting compares current weather conditions to past years to predict future weather patterns.
- A La Niña event is developing in the tropical Pacific, expected to influence winter weather by bringing colder temperatures to western and central Canada and the northern and eastern US.
- La Niña typically increases snowfall potential in the northwestern, midwestern, and northeastern US, as well as eastern Canada.
- The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is currently in a negative phase, which historically correlates with a weaker Polar Vortex and colder winters.
- A weaker Polar Vortex can lead to more cold air outbreaks in mid-latitude regions like the US and Europe.
- Historical data shows that La Niña winters have a 60-75% chance of producing stratospheric warming events (SSW), which further weaken the Polar Vortex.
- Ocean temperature anomalies, including a warm North Pacific and cold La Niña in the tropics, resemble past winters that were colder and snowier.
- October snow cover extent in Siberia can influence the Polar Vortex, with more snow leading to a weaker vortex and increased chances of cold winters.
- Seasonal snowfall forecasts indicate above-normal snowfall for parts of the US and Europe in the 2025/2026 winter.