- The simple argument for AI risk compares the arrival of AI with IQ 300 to an alien species with IQ 300, which most people would find concerning.
- The complex argument involves multiple steps (fast takeoff, alignment difficulty, convergent subgoals, decisive strategic advantage) and is often overconfident or unsatisfying.
- The simple argument is more likely true, easier to understand, and reveals the crux of disagreement: whether people truly believe AI with IQ 300 and full human capabilities could appear.
- The complex argument can be framed as a 'middle version' claiming that if things go wrong, they will likely go wrong as in that scenario, but it may not capture all bad outcomes.
- Optics of arguments matter: surveys show many people already worry about AI risk, so the simple argument may not be more convincing than a confident complex argument.