a month ago
- Jet engines are a complex manufacturing challenge where China's state-capitalist model struggles due to slow iteration cycles, high regulatory barriers, and the need for deep process knowledge accumulated over decades.
- China excels in industries with fast iteration cycles, clear technological targets, and underserved demand (e.g., EVs, batteries), but jet engines lack these features, relying instead on reliability, certification, and a specialized supplier network.
- The commercial jet engine market has thin margins, extreme cost sensitivity, and rigorous certification (e.g., FAA/EASA), making entry difficult; China's CJ-1000A program faces delays and limited domestic sales without international certification.
- Military jet engines are more feasible for China due to captive demand and lower efficiency requirements, but they still lag Western counterparts by decades in performance and reliability.
- China's pursuit of jet engine indigenization is driven by strategic autonomy (autarky) and civil-military fusion, despite high costs and opportunity costs, as it ignores market feedback in favor of ideological goals.
- The West's decentralized capital allows asymmetric bets on innovations like supersonic jets and autonomous drones, while China focuses on scaling mature technologies, raising questions about long-term innovation competitiveness.