8 hours ago
- On January 21, 2025, Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced the Stargate project with President Trump, a $500 billion AI infrastructure venture in the U.S. claiming to create over 100,000 jobs.
- Stargate LLC has never been formed after 15 months; SoftBank and OpenAI have contributed no capital, and no government money or funding has been deployed, raising suspicions of a marketing conspiracy among the companies.
- The project's only real component is a data center campus in Abilene, Texas, which was initially for xAI before Elon Musk pulled out; Oracle now builds it with only two of eight planned buildings operational and behind schedule.
- Oracle is heavily indebted, raising over $38 billion in project financing for data centers in Wisconsin and Shackelford, keeping debt off balance sheets, while its core businesses plateau and cashflow is negative $24.7 billion.
- OpenAI, the single tenant for all Stargate data centers, is expected to lose over $167 billion by 2028 and cannot pay Oracle for compute; it also has massive commitments to Amazon, Microsoft, and others totaling hundreds of billions.
- All Stargate data centers are far behind schedule; Abilene won't finish before April 2027, and other sites are barely started (e.g., patches of land with few steel beams), with completion unlikely before 2029.
- The analysis concludes Stargate will bankrupt Oracle unless OpenAI becomes the most profitable company ever within two years; GPU capacity will be obsolete before debts are repaid, and Ellison's personal loans ($20 billion) collateralized by Oracle shares risk margin calls.