15 hours ago
- Trade wars with China generally inadvisable; two key rules: strength in numbers (ally with trading partners) and clarity (stable, predictable policies).
- U.S. is violating these rules: imposing erratic tariffs, alienating allies, and flip-flopping on policies, causing chaos.
- U.S. deeply dependent on China for consumer goods (e.g., 99% of child safety seats, 96% of pet toys) and critical metals/electronics (e.g., lithium, smartphone parts).
- China also depends on U.S. for agricultural exports (e.g., 89% of grain sorghum, 52% of soybeans) and semiconductor equipment, but can more easily shift supply chains.
- Asymmetry favors China: U.S. cannot quickly replace Chinese manufacturing, while China can source alternatives; trade war risks higher prices, job losses, and economic damage.
- Costs include higher consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and potential bailouts for U.S. farmers; China's retaliatory export controls could spike energy and EV costs.