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The U.S. economy in 2026: What to watch for
2 months ago
- The U.S. economy in 2026 faces key issues including Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, stagflation risks from tariffs and labor market weakness, and political pressures on Fed independence.
- Tariffs are a major concern, raising consumer prices and production costs, with potential for Supreme Court intervention but administration likely to continue tariff policies.
- AI has limited labor market impact so far, with small disruptions in specific occupations, while AI bubble debates persist over stock valuations and adoption speed.
- The labor market is in a low-hire, low-fire state with 'meaningful' downside risks from rising unemployment and potential AI headwinds.
- Other issues include health care costs from reduced ACA subsidies, dangerous fiscal deficits, affordability concerns for consumers, and rising electricity prices due to grid investment and demand.
A Trade War With China Is a Very Bad Idea
2 months ago
- Trade wars with China generally inadvisable; two key rules: strength in numbers (ally with trading partners) and clarity (stable, predictable policies).
- U.S. is violating these rules: imposing erratic tariffs, alienating allies, and flip-flopping on policies, causing chaos.
- U.S. deeply dependent on China for consumer goods (e.g., 99% of child safety seats, 96% of pet toys) and critical metals/electronics (e.g., lithium, smartphone parts).
- China also depends on U.S. for agricultural exports (e.g., 89% of grain sorghum, 52% of soybeans) and semiconductor equipment, but can more easily shift supply chains.
- Asymmetry favors China: U.S. cannot quickly replace Chinese manufacturing, while China can source alternatives; trade war risks higher prices, job losses, and economic damage.
- Costs include higher consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and potential bailouts for U.S. farmers; China's retaliatory export controls could spike energy and EV costs.
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds
3 months ago
- 95% of Americans believe the US is facing an affordability crisis, with rising costs for groceries and gas.
- Economic sentiment has worsened since February, with 57% now saying the economy is getting worse, up from 46%.
- Affordability struggles cross party lines: about half of Democrats, Republicans, and independents report trouble affording necessities.
- Two-thirds of Americans have little faith in the federal government to improve the cost-of-living crisis.
- Republican optimism about the economy has dropped sharply due to the war in Iran, from 49% in February to 27% now.
- Rural Americans, a key Republican base, are increasingly pessimistic, with 64% saying the economy is worsening.
- Cratering economic sentiment may pose problems for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
- Trump's mixed messages on affordability include dismissing high gas prices while demanding companies lower them.
- Among independent voters who see an affordability crisis, 54% believe neither party has a solution.
- Inflation at 4.2% has wiped out wage gains, and half of those polled struggle with debt, including student loans.

us economy

The U.S. economy in 2026: What to watch for

A Trade War With China Is a Very Bad Idea

Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds