- The article compares the AI boom to the 2008 mortgage crisis, highlighting that both rely on acceleration (second derivative) rather than levels or growth rates.
- It argues that AI financing is structured like a credit-driven real estate cycle, not a technology cycle, with heavy reliance on take-or-pay contracts and debt.
- OpenAI is identified as a key 'subprime' borrower, dependent on continuous equity refinancing to service massive compute commitments without profitability.
- Hyperscalers' capital expenditure is accelerating, but the second derivative has turned negative, signaling potential regime change despite record spending.