5 hours ago
- Based on 14 models and 667 ensemble members, this El Niño has ~90% chance of becoming the strongest on record.
- The multi-model median peak is 3.6°C, 0.8°C above the previous record of 2.75°C (2015-16).
- The event is developing faster than the 1997-98 super El Niño and started from La Niña conditions.
- Every model predicts a super El Niño, with 11 of 14 models showing record peaks even after adjusting for warming trend (RONI).
- Observed SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are already near super El Niño threshold by mid-July.
- Global temperature impacts are likely to peak in 2027, but 2026 has a ~28% chance of being the warmest year on record.
- A caveat: these forecasts are unverified in such extreme territory, but the observed ocean is already in uncharted waters.