Interpreting a volcano's 'bulges' and predicting the next explosive eruption
2 days ago
- In 2024, Stamps' team detected a short-lived bulge near a Tanzanian volcano caused by 1 million cubic meters of magma injected into a reservoir 1.8 miles underground.
- The amount of magma is modest and not concerning, but demonstrates the effectiveness of Virginia Tech's early-stage alert system.
- The volcano Ol Doinyo Lengai is very active; the goal is to predict explosive eruptions to allow time for evacuation.
- Explosive eruptions occur every 10-15 years on average; one is expected within our lifetime.
- Concern would arise if a magnitude 5.9 earthquake occurs or if magma moves from deeper to shallower depths.
- Monitoring includes six GNSS instruments, two seismic stations, and episodic benchmark measurements since 2016.
- This team is the only one conducting continuous ground-based GNSS and seismic monitoring at this volcano.
- Over a decade of observations helps understand magma movements and link them to surface changes for eruption prediction.