AI, Work, and the Next Downturn
a day ago
- AI and automation are increasingly taking over paid tasks, potentially shifting income from wages to owners of scarce resources like land, location, and power.
- The next economic downturn may result in permanent job losses that do not return as AI accelerates.
- Current indicators show rising long-term borrowing costs, a hollow labor market, and a slowdown in non-healthcare job growth.
- Labour's share of US business output has fallen to its lowest since 1947, and workforce participation has dropped.
- A model predicts up to 24% unemployment by 2032 in a severe scenario, with 14-16% by end of 2028 if current trends continue.
- Eight out of 29 economic indicators have triggered, including jobs outside care, labour share, and government bond premiums.