What happens when you analyze your favorite college football team like the CIA?
8 hours ago
- The author applied CIA-style intelligence analysis (Continuous Probabilistic Foresight) to evaluate the University of Illinois football team's season prospects.
- The methodology decomposes uncertain futures into scenarios, drivers, indicators, and resolvable forecasting questions, updating probabilities as new evidence arrives.
- After Illinois lost to Duke, playoff chances dropped (8% to 4%), but forecasts for offensive line sacks allowed and quarterback efficiency improved, showing nuanced updates rather than uniform pessimism.
- The approach provides a structured record of beliefs and reasons, preventing hindsight bias and allowing systematic disagreement with market odds for betting or analysis.
- AI handles research, organization, and forecasting, shifting human effort to framing questions and challenging assumptions, with potential for other sports teams or domains.