The Rise of Zero Fertility Desire in China
5 hours ago
- Childlessness has risen steadily across high-income societies in Western Europe and East Asia, contributing to persistently low fertility.
- Existing research largely attributes low fertility and rising childlessness to structural barriers rather than a decline in fertility desire itself.
- In China, recent data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) shows a sharp increase in zero fertility desire among young adults, rising from 5% in 2012 to 32% in 2023.
- A pronounced gender gap has emerged: by 2023, 47% of young women reported no desire for children, compared to a lower rate among men.
- Gender is the most consistent predictor of zero fertility desire, more so than education or hukou status, with college-educated women having substantially higher odds of expressing zero fertility desire.
- The rise of zero fertility desire in China may represent a cultural break from Confucian family norms, where parenthood was historically the default.
- Hypotheses tested include that college-educated, urban, and female young adults are more likely to express zero fertility desire, with interactions between gender and education or hukou status.
- These findings raise questions about the effectiveness of pronatalist policies focused solely on reducing economic barriers.