Sarah's Wager
2 days ago
- In November 2025, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 enabled AI agents to act autonomously, no longer needing human guidance, marking a shift from childlike to adult-level capability.
- Agents can now take over tasks like coding, health management, and home control, as demonstrated by Nat Friedman's agent ordering him to drink water and redirecting his Tesla to a store.
- The Singularity, the point where machines can improve themselves without humans, is widely believed to have begun in January 2026, with Silicon Valley experiencing a manic energy and rapid investment.
- Venture capital investment surged to $300 billion in early 2026, with 65% going to four major labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Waymo), but startups like Harvey, Baseten, and OpenEvidence are thriving by offering specialized AI solutions.
- Sarah Guo, founder of Conviction, is a key venture investor backing AI companies like Harvey and Baseten, focusing on startups that provide alternatives to the dominant labs, and she leads an 'insurgency' against the labs' monopoly.
- Conviction's approach includes a hands-on, intense work ethic, as seen in Guo's relentless deal-making and her firm's success in backing companies that have grown to multi-billion-dollar valuations.
- The text highlights the tension between the labs building everything themselves and the need for specialized, trust-based applications in sectors like law and healthcare, where startups can thrive.
- Guo's background includes growing up in her father's networking company, learning the value of speed and focus, and her transition from Greylock to founding Conviction with a focus on AI.
- The future remains uncertain: while labs continue to grow and attract talent, startups like OpenEvidence are achieving rapid adoption, and the question of whether early-stage investment opportunities remain is hotly debated.