Trouble Transitioning (2025)

6 hours ago

The 'energy transition' narrative of replacing fossil fuels with renewables to achieve net zero is often presented as a historical progression similar to past transitions like coal to oil.
Historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz argues that energy history is not about transitions but about accumulation, where new energy sources increase demand for old ones, such as wood use persisting with coal and oil.
The belief in orderly energy transitions is a misleading ideology; achieving net zero requires an unprecedented break from centuries of energy accumulation, not historical precedent.
Technologies like railways and cars depend on multiple energy sources interdependently (e.g., timber for railways, coal for steel), challenging the notion of simple substitutions.
Transition theory gained traction partly due to nuclear advocacy in the late 20th century, which framed nuclear power as a clean replacement for fossil fuels, influencing climate policy.
Fressoz criticizes Green New Deal proposals as technocratically naive, lacking concrete plans for industrial transformation and overly focused on social goals rather than material changes.
A true energy transition would require a radical political coalition to enforce change, not consensus, echoing Marx's idea of moving from 'prehistory' to conscious history-making.
The essay notes Western-centrism in energy history, emphasizing that 21st-century decarbonization is driven by Asia, especially China, necessitating a global perspective.

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