Corona: Delta Update - Bert Hubert's writings
2 days ago
- Delta variant is more contagious and will become dominant within weeks, though its spread varies by region.
- Vaccines provide strong protection against severe illness and death from Delta: BioNTech/Pfizer 96%, AstraZeneca 92%, with Moderna and Janssen likely similar.
- Getting a second dose is crucial unless you have had a prior COVID-19 infection.
- Infection numbers are expected to rise again, but due to high vaccination rates, severe outcomes will be less severe.
- Vaccinated individuals can still test positive and transmit the virus, though they usually experience mild symptoms.
- There is a potential race between vaccination efforts and Delta's spread, leading to either a two-phase epidemic or a manageable wave.
- Autumn and winter predictions remain uncertain due to unknowns about new variants and vaccine durability.
- Statistics can be misleading; for example, a high percentage of hospitalized vaccinated people is expected if vaccination rates are high and vaccines are effective.
- Side effects from vaccines do not correlate with their effectiveness; lack of side effects is not a concern.
- Choosing any available vaccine is better than none; two-dose vaccines offer slightly better protection, but Janssen's single dose is convenient with less variant-specific data.