Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in.
a day ago
- Travel agents collapsed over 10 years due to internet disruption, with numbers dropping 47% from 2000 to 2012.
- Software engineering faces a similar disruption from AI/LLMs, but adoption is much faster—LLM usage in coding went from 0% to 84% in three years.
- Generalist travel agents were wiped out, while survivors moved upmarket (e.g., luxury travel, corporate TMCs) or into niches (e.g., cruises).
- Software engineers must adapt by leaning into agentic tools, broadening their skills (e.g., full-stack, devops), and focusing on domain knowledge and system integration.
- The author warns that software engineers don't have 10 years to adjust; the curve is steeper and agents are already achieving near-human performance on complex tasks.