HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake
8 hours ago
- Author has been negative on DRAM due to cyclicality but now considers an exception due to AI demand.
- HBM is viewed as a mistake; hybrid bonding and optical solutions are the future.
- Micron's earnings history shows predictable cyclical patterns with CEO Sanjay often dismissing downturn risks.
- Agentic AI adds structural demand, potentially extending the current cycle beyond historical norms.
- Samsung is preferred over SK Hynix and Micron due to its in-house logic foundry, SiPho capabilities, and engineering advantages.
- The key to a sustained re-rating from price/book to price/earnings is improved supply discipline among DRAM makers.
- Author is considering a position in Samsung equity or leveraged ETFs but currently holds no DRAM related positions.