el niño

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India's monsoon rains in danger as UN chief warns planet is 'on fire'
2 months ago
- A strengthening El Niño is forecast to bring hotter, drier conditions across much of the world, endangering India's monsoon.
- UN Secretary General António Guterres warns that El Niño is 'adding fuel to a planet already on fire' and pushing the world into 'uncharted territory'.
- The World Meteorological Organization predicts increased drought, floods, and wildfire risks around the Indian Ocean basin, with below-normal rainfall for India.
- Marine heatwaves and record warm Pacific waters are intensifying, leading to predictions of a 'super El Niño'.
- Governments are urged to prepare for heat, drought, and floods, while Guterres calls for a stop to fossil fuel expansion.
Great Barrier Reef at risk of 'collapse', scientists warn
2 months ago
- Scientists warn that Australia's Great Barrier Reef faces a high risk of extreme and widespread bleaching and ecosystem collapse due to this year's El Niño.
- The reef, stretching 2,300 km along Queensland, is a major tourism draw and recently avoided UNESCO's endangered listing despite concerns over mass coral bleaching and climate change.
- Marine ecologist Morgan Pratchett stated that the next major disturbance could lead to localized species extinctions and widespread ecosystem collapse.
- Hard coral cover declined substantially in 2024-2025, with above-average water temperatures causing the sixth mass bleaching event since 2016.
- Additional pressures include extreme weather, land-based runoff, coastal development, and Crown of Thorns starfish predation.
- Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg criticized lack of government action, warning that inaction threatens coral reefs globally and could be a precursor to human loss.
The Strongest El Niño Ever
2 months ago
- Based on 14 models and 667 ensemble members, this El Niño has ~90% chance of becoming the strongest on record.
- The multi-model median peak is 3.6°C, 0.8°C above the previous record of 2.75°C (2015-16).
- The event is developing faster than the 1997-98 super El Niño and started from La Niña conditions.
- Every model predicts a super El Niño, with 11 of 14 models showing record peaks even after adjusting for warming trend (RONI).
- Observed SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are already near super El Niño threshold by mid-July.
- Global temperature impacts are likely to peak in 2027, but 2026 has a ~28% chance of being the warmest year on record.
- A caveat: these forecasts are unverified in such extreme territory, but the observed ocean is already in uncharted waters.
Some Monsters Are Real
2 months ago
- The current El Niño event is predicted to be extremely strong, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region potentially reaching around 4°C above baseline, which is historically unprecedented.
- Climate scientists and journalists are increasingly vocal about severe impacts, including intensified storms, heatwaves, floods, crop failures, and infrastructure collapse, likening it to a 'Godzilla'-level disaster.
- Statistical analysis shows current conditions are a 1-in-7000 event without human-caused warming, and anomalies may exceed four standard deviations, indicating extreme rarity and severity.
- The El Niño is just beginning, with further warming expected, and it may lead to global surface temperatures reaching levels not seen in over 120,000 years, possibly exceeding 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Long-term projections suggest more frequent and intense El Niño and La Niña events this century, cycling into increasingly destructive patterns until a near-permanent El Niño state emerges after 2100.
The Graph That Should Be Front-Page News
2 months ago
- Sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region show an unprecedented departure from historical records, indicating a climate crisis.
- Human-induced climate change, primarily from increased CO2, has warmed oceans, amplifying natural events like El Niño and leading to extreme weather.
- Warming oceans disrupt ecosystems, cause coral bleaching, fisheries decline, and increase risks of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and economic impacts.
- Climate change affects global systems interconnectedly, risking cascading tipping points that may become irreversible on human timescales.
- The lack of media attention on this critical graph reflects societal inertia, urging action to address climate change before it becomes unmanageable.
El Niño Is Wreaking Havoc on Pacific Fisheries
2 months ago
- El Niño's early arrival disrupts global fisheries, creating winners and losers.
- Peru bans anchovy fishing to prevent further population decline; anchovies dive deeper, making them harder to catch.
- Southern California sees unprecedented tuna catches, benefiting recreational and commercial fishers.
- El Niño alters ocean dynamics, reducing upwelling and algae, impacting species dependent on surface nutrients.
- Seafood prices fluctuate; some species become more expensive, while others like shrimp may boom.
- Fish migration shifts affect ecosystems, coral reefs, and can escalate geopolitical conflicts.
- Artisanal fishers may not offset losses due to high winds and infrastructure damage from heavy rainfall.
- The Humboldt squid's collapse could lead to significant ecosystem consequences in Peru.
- Each El Niño is unique, and climate change increases vulnerability, making severe impacts more probable.
Daily global sea surface temperatures break records for the time of year
2 months ago
- Global sea surface temperatures (SST) have exceeded previous records from 2023 and 2024, with C3S reporting 20.86°C on 21 June and Copernicus Marine reporting 21.0°C.
- The record highs are attributed to the onset of El Niño conditions and unusually high SST in several ocean regions, with potential impacts on weather patterns, climate, and marine ecosystems.
- Ocean temperatures outside polar regions have been 0.35°C to 0.73°C warmer than the long-term average over the past three years, reaching record-high anomalies in June.
- The warming reflects both climate change and a strong El Niño event, which is forecasted to reach levels not seen in decades, likely leading to more temperature records.
- Continuous ocean monitoring by Copernicus supports policy and decision-making, with independent data from C3S and Copernicus Marine strengthening scientific conclusions.
- Warmer oceans contribute to extreme weather, sea level rise, marine heatwaves, and ecosystem stress, while El Niño adds atmospheric heat and shifts global weather patterns.
- Record SST values are confirmed by both C3S ERA5 reanalysis and Copernicus Marine GLO12, using combined in-situ and satellite observations for accurate monitoring.
- Scientists are monitoring to determine if the exceedance is temporary, but with a strong El Niño forecasted, new global temperature records are expected in coming months.

el niño

India's monsoon rains in danger as UN chief warns planet is 'on fire'

Great Barrier Reef at risk of 'collapse', scientists warn

The Strongest El Niño Ever

Some Monsters Are Real

The Graph That Should Be Front-Page News

El Niño Is Wreaking Havoc on Pacific Fisheries

Daily global sea surface temperatures break records for the time of year