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climate change

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Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate
2 months ago
- Cycles are fundamental to both natural and human-made systems, ranging from seasons and migrations to economics.
- Milankovitch cycles describe how Earth's orbital variations (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) affect long-term climate and ice age timing.
- Eccentricity (100,000-year cycle) alters Earth's orbit shape, affecting insolation and season lengths, but has a minor annual climate impact.
- Obliquity (41,000-year cycle) changes axial tilt, influencing season severity and ice sheet growth, with current tilt at 23.4° and decreasing.
- Precession (23,000-year cycle) combines axial and apsidal wobbles, affecting seasonal contrasts between hemispheres over millennia.
- Milankovitch's model, validated by ice core and sediment data, explains glacial-interglacial cycles but cannot account for modern rapid warming.
How to Survive an Infestation of Toxic Caterpillars
2 months ago
- The author describes Berlin's hottest day and an infestation of oak processionary caterpillars (Eichenprozessionsspinner) with toxic hairs that cause severe itching and rashes.
- Caterpillar hairs can become airborne, travel far, survive for years, and penetrate clothing, causing painful stings and potential eye or respiratory issues.
- Climate change, particularly warmer and sunnier springs, has led to mass outbreaks of these caterpillars across Europe, including Germany, Britain, Denmark, Netherlands, and France.
- Efforts to control the caterpillars—such as vacuuming, pesticides, and nematodes—have limited effectiveness, and experts suggest humans must adapt to their presence.
- The caterpillars have a long evolutionary history and are found worldwide, but human carbon emissions may worsen outbreaks, highlighting our own role in the ecological crisis.
Danube's record low levels force shutdown of Hungary's only nuclear plant
2 months ago
- Hungary's only nuclear power plant, Paks, will shut down for the first time due to record low Danube water levels, causing a potential critical energy supply crisis.
- A heatwave with temperatures around 37°C for a week exacerbates the energy situation; PM Magyar asks for reduced energy use between 17:00 and 22:00.
- Romania also shut down one of its two nuclear reactors at Cernavoda due to low Danube levels, risking temporary loss of all nuclear energy.
- Climate change is warming Europe twice as fast as the global average, leading to more heatwaves, water stress, and wildfires.
- Low Danube waters have revealed sunken ships and mammoth bones; shipping halted and cruise passengers stranded in Bulgaria.
- Serbia's Sava and Tisa rivers also at low levels, not expected to improve until mid-September; temperatures could reach 40°C.
- France and Spain have experienced severe wildfires this summer, with hundreds of thousands evacuated.
UK on track for record heat-related deaths this year, UKHSA estimates
2 months ago
- England is on track for the highest number of heat-related deaths ever recorded, with an estimated 2,877 deaths during the May and June heatwaves, almost double last year's total.
- The May heatwave reached 35.1°C (June 26th: 38.0°C), both breaking UK monthly temperature records, and the current record of 2,985 heat-related deaths was set in 2022.
- Vulnerable groups, including older adults and those with medical conditions, are at high risk, and UKHSA warns that hotter, more frequent, and extreme weather is expected due to climate change.
- Drought was declared across more than half of England due to water usage exceeding replenishment, and Health Secretary Yvette Cooper noted serious impacts on health and the NHS.
- The heatwaves are linked to a 'heat dome' phenomenon, and similar record-breaking heat and wildfires have affected western Europe, including France, Spain, and Greece.
On Climate Change and (Active) Climate Management - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Climate change is real, human-caused, and the 2023 anomaly is exceptionally dangerous.
- The climate is inherently unstable, and human emissions are now a dominant force in the Earth system.
- Current efforts to reduce emissions ('abstinence only') are insufficient to meet net-zero goals by 2050.
- Solar energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels, but the transition is too slow due to political and infrastructural hurdles.
- Carbon capture and storage options exist but are controversial and face scaling challenges.
- Solar Radiation Management (geoengineering) is cheap and could rapidly cool the planet, but requires more research and governance.
- Unilateral geoengineering by a wealthy individual or nation is a significant risk.
- Despite setbacks, progress is being made toward a cleaner energy future, but urgent action and research are needed.
We gaan de aarde kunstmatig afkoelen, wen maar vast aan het idee - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The UN states the world will not meet its climate goals, and despite efforts in the Netherlands, CO₂ reduction is insufficient due to de-industrialization shifting emissions elsewhere.
- An artificial cooling solution involving injecting sulfur into the stratosphere was proposed in the 1960s and proven effective after the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, which temporarily lowered global temperatures.
- Geo-engineering remains controversial, with concerns that it may sabotage progressive climate policy, but experts like Gernot Wagner argue that it is a matter of when, not if, such measures will be used as a last resort.
The Impossible Things We Have to Believe - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Climate change is severe but largely ignored as not cost-effective to address.
- Massive AI data centers are prioritized despite consuming water, emitting CO2, and generating heat.
- The US president, with control of nuclear weapons, starts wars without plans and faces no checks.
- Israel's actions in Gaza killing tens of thousands are accepted, while Sudan is ignored.
- AI is forced into education and hiring despite public dislike and unclear benefits.
- Governments are fully dependent on US clouds, losing sovereignty and privacy.
- Governments lack expertise, relying on lobbyists, leading to failed plans and expensive nuclear projects.
- Medicine shortages persist due to offshoring for cents, despite ability to produce locally.
- Rule of law is breaking down, e.g., US Supreme Court legitimacy and police data violations.
- Social media amplifies hate, manipulates populations, and billionaires remain untaxed.
- Blaming foreigners and refugees distracts from real problems like climate and governance.
Climate change is now threatening a pillar of childhood: summer break
2 months ago
- Climate change is threatening outdoor summer activities for children, with extreme heat, wildfire smoke, and floods disrupting camps and playtime.
- Kids and families are adapting to dangerous weather by moving activities indoors, such as swimming exercises on dry land and indoor baking.
- Summer camps face a new reality of more frequent extreme weather events, requiring flexible safety plans and activity adjustments.
- The generation of school-aged kids, already impacted by COVID-19, now confronts climate change effects like wildfires and heat waves during summer breaks.
- Parents and camp leaders note the emotional toll on children, who experience loss of traditional summer fun and feel the urgency of climate change firsthand.
France and Spain wildfires: more than 300k people displaced
2 months ago
- More than 300,000 people have been displaced by wildfires in France and Spain, driven by climate change, with temperatures expected to rise.
- In Bordeaux, 7,000 people are sheltered in the largest French evacuation since WWII, while firefighters in Spain work to prevent two fires from merging.
- Europe is the fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising over twice the global average, exacerbating wildfire risks.
- The 2026 wine vintage in Bordeaux is currently safe from smoke taint, as unripe grapes are less vulnerable.
- A wet winter followed by record-hot temperatures and drought, known as 'flash drought,' has fueled the wildfires.
- Additional evacuations in France and Spain have occurred, with thousands of firefighters injured and international aid arriving.
Unravelling the climate behind the collapse of Bronze Age civilizations
2 months ago
- Severe droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Late Bronze Age collapse resulted from the alignment of multiple natural climate cycles operating over different timescales.
- A gradual drying trend over millennia, driven by Earth's orbital changes, combined with shorter-term fluctuations from the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere to push the region beyond a critical hydroclimatic threshold.
- The findings are relevant today, as future drought risk in the Mediterranean may depend on both human-driven warming and natural Atlantic variability interacting with long-term trends.
If another advanced civilization lived on Earth before us, would we know?
2 months ago
- Astrobiologist Adam Frank questioned whether alien civilizations experience climate change, leading to a collaboration with NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt.
- Schmidt challenged the assumption that no prior advanced civilizations existed on Earth, sparking the 'Silurian hypothesis'—named after a fictional race from 'Doctor Who'.
- The hypothesis explores if an ancient industrial civilization on Earth could have left detectable traces in the geological record after millions of years.
- Evidence such as urbanization, fossils, and chemical changes (e.g., carbon pollution) is examined, but Earth's dynamic processes (e.g., tectonics, erosion) erase most surface features.
- The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (55 million years ago) is noted for its similarity to modern human-driven climate change, though its cause is likely natural.
- Scientists conclude that indirect traces like plastics, artificial hormones, and heavy metals could persist in sediments, but a 100,000-year civilization would be hard to detect.
- The hypothesis is a thought experiment to question civilization sustainability, with Frank suggesting humans may fail to manage climate impacts despite technological advances.
- Geologist Jan Zalasiewicz argues that modern human activities (e.g., energy use, waste) leave unmistakable footprints, ruling out a prior similar civilization.
- The research aims not to prove the hypothesis but to encourage high-resolution searches for past civilizations, highlighting the need for planetary stewardship.
In the 1950s, a Soviet engineer proposed damming the Bering Strait
2 months ago
- Soviet engineer Petr Mikhailovich Borisov proposed damming the Bering Strait to pump cold Arctic water into the Pacific, aiming to melt Arctic ice and warm Siberia's climate.
- The plan, developed in the 1950s during the Cold War, reflected an era of confidence in technology's ability to solve problems, but faced criticism from scientists who warned of complex ecological consequences.
- Today, similar geoengineering ideas are studied as theoretical climate interventions to stabilize ocean currents, but are not seen as alternatives to reducing emissions.
Even camels can't cope: Africa's ships of the desert hit by rising temperatures
2 months ago
- Extreme heat in Africa's Afar region causes camels to suffer blisters, watery eyes, and skin burns, with herders reporting losses of calves.
- Scientific studies and veterinarians confirm that high temperatures lead to heat stress, dehydration, disease prevalence, and reduced milk yield in camels.
- Drought-related camel mortality affects nearly 46% of households in Somalia, with some areas experiencing mortality rates over 73%.
- Camels can tolerate heat up to 40°C by fluctuating body temperature, but frequent summer temperatures above 50°C in the Sahara cause severe heat stress.
- Prolonged heat above 41-45°C damages camels' cells and immune systems, leading to lethargy, reduced food intake, and reproductive disorders.
- Herders in Ethiopia are permanently moving camels from the north to the south due to extreme heat and drought, abandoning traditional herding areas.
- Water scarcity and loss of vegetation worsen the impacts, with water prices in some parts of Somalia rising by over 2,000%.
The 1.5°C Lie: The Math That Climate Models Are Hiding from You
2 months ago
- Almost no climate scientist believes the 1.5°C target from the Paris Agreement is still achievable.
- The carbon budget would require halving emissions by 2030, but new oil and gas projects keep being approved.
- IPCC models rely on carbon removal technology that does not exist at industrial scale.
- Net zero targets depend on dubious carbon credits and tree planting, which are ineffective as forests burn in heatwaves.
- Tipping points like permafrost methane release create uncontrollable feedback loops.
- The scientific consensus has shifted from chasing the 1.5°C goal to focusing on adaptation and saving every fraction of a degree.
The Great Barrier Reef is changing. Why isn't it on UNESCO's 'in danger' list?
2 months ago
- UNESCO draft decision keeps Great Barrier Reef off 'in danger' list despite grave concerns over mass bleaching and climate change impacts.
- The decision recognizes Australia's reef management investment but expresses alarm over repeated bleaching and deteriorating ecological conditions.
- Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent; the reef has experienced six mass bleaching events in less than a decade.
- Coral bleaching occurs when water temperatures exceed local tolerance; rising global temperatures increase the likelihood of prolonged heat stress.
- High coral cover does not indicate a healthy reef ecosystem; fast-growing corals are vulnerable to future disturbances.
- The 'in danger' listing was originally meant to mobilize help, but is now viewed as a 'badge of shame' for governments.
- Local management actions can improve resilience but cannot mitigate the dominant threat of global warming.
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential for the reef's long-term survival, but collective global action is needed.
World shift to clean energy is unstoppable, IEA report says
2 months ago
- The world is on an unstoppable shift towards renewable energy, but the phase-down of fossil fuels is not happening quickly enough.
- Renewables are predicted to provide half of the world's electricity by 2030, yet emissions remain too high to prevent a 1.5°C temperature rise.
- Investment in fossil fuels needs to be cut in half, while current levels are double what they should be.
- Clean energy growth is impressive, with electric car sales rising from 1 in 25 in 2020 to 1 in 5 in 2023.
- Oil and gas will continue to play a role, but new oil fields like Rosebank are criticized as inconsistent with climate goals.
- World leaders at COP28 may agree to phase out unabated fossil fuels, but abatement technologies are not yet scalable.
- Rising tensions in the Middle East add uncertainty to energy markets, drawing parallels to the 1973 oil crisis.
- Expansion of solar and wind energy offers a long-term solution to energy volatility.
Chunk of sea ice has not refrozen in West Antarctica, satellite images show
2 months ago
- Satellite images show a massive chunk of sea ice in West Antarctica, roughly the size of Montana, has not refrozen after a winter heatwave, marking a dramatic change.
- Antarctic sea ice has entered a reduced state since 2015, with sea ice levels in West Antarctica about 50% lower than average this year.
- The lack of refreezing could contribute to global sea level rise, as the West Antarctica Ice Sheet collapse could raise sea levels by over 10 feet.
- June 2025 saw record-low sea ice levels in the region, with 12.6 million square kilometers of Antarctic sea ice, 1.3 million square kilometers below the 1991-2020 average.
- Contributing factors include strengthening westerly winds linked to climate change and a low-pressure anomaly causing warm air to prevent sea ice formation.
- The heat wave creates a feedback loop, as the lack of reflective white ice surface allows the area to stay warmer, further hindering refreezing.
- Glaciologists are closely monitoring the western Antarctic shelf, particularly Thwaites Glacier, which already contributes to 4% of global sea level rise and is accelerating in deterioration.
Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis
2 months ago
- A majority of Americans believe extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past five years, with 61% of likely voters holding this view.
- 67% of respondents link climate change to worsening heatwaves, the highest among extreme weather events, including 48% of Republicans.
- 88% of survey participants support state policies requiring employers to provide heat protections like water, shade, breaks, and air conditioning.
- The findings suggest that extreme heat could serve as a bipartisan entry point for conversations about the climate crisis.
- Many Americans still misunderstand the causes of climate change, with 27% attributing it to natural cycles rather than human activity.
- Workers in outdoor and some indoor jobs are highly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses, highlighting the need for protective measures.
- Public support for federal heat standards is strong, despite political stalling, indicating climate action is not a partisan issue.
CO2 overload in blood suggests toxic atmosphere within 50 years
2 months ago
- An analysis of NHANES data from 1999 to 2020 shows an increasing trend in average serum bicarbonate levels in the U.S. population, paralleling rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
- Over the same period, average serum calcium and phosphorus levels have decreased, suggesting physiological compensation for elevated CO2 exposure.
- If trends continue, bicarbonate levels could reach the upper healthy limit around 2076, while calcium and phosphorus could hit lower healthy limits by the end of the century.
- Elevated CO2 exposure is linked to potential adverse health effects, including oxidative stress, cognitive impairment, anxiety, and organ calcification, based on animal and some human studies.
- The study highlights that human physiology, evolved under stable atmospheric CO2 levels, may be increasingly strained by current and projected CO2 increases, urging immediate reductions in emissions.
Bananas sprout in Rayleigh Garden UK after 15 years
2 months ago
- Warmer UK climate enables banana plants, traditionally not flowering 20 years ago, to fruit, as seen in Essex and Suffolk.
- Tropical plant enthusiasts Peter and Emma Stav harvested bananas after 15 years, using walls to create a microclimate for winter protection.
- Heat-loving plants like olives, figs, and apricots thrive while traditional British crops like gooseberries and rhubarb decline in some areas.
- Experts note that Musa Basjoo bananas, while hardy, produce inedible fruit and require insulation in cold or exposed areas for successful growth.
- Increased temperatures and heatwaves contribute to banana plants fruiting unexpectedly, making cultivation easier in the UK, though still niche for most people.

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climate change

Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate

How to Survive an Infestation of Toxic Caterpillars

Danube's record low levels force shutdown of Hungary's only nuclear plant

UK on track for record heat-related deaths this year, UKHSA estimates

On Climate Change and (Active) Climate Management - Bert Hubert's writings

We gaan de aarde kunstmatig afkoelen, wen maar vast aan het idee - Bert Hubert's writings

The Impossible Things We Have to Believe - Bert Hubert's writings

Climate change is now threatening a pillar of childhood: summer break

France and Spain wildfires: more than 300k people displaced

Unravelling the climate behind the collapse of Bronze Age civilizations

If another advanced civilization lived on Earth before us, would we know?

In the 1950s, a Soviet engineer proposed damming the Bering Strait

Even camels can't cope: Africa's ships of the desert hit by rising temperatures

The 1.5°C Lie: The Math That Climate Models Are Hiding from You

The Great Barrier Reef is changing. Why isn't it on UNESCO's 'in danger' list?

World shift to clean energy is unstoppable, IEA report says

Chunk of sea ice has not refrozen in West Antarctica, satellite images show

Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis

CO2 overload in blood suggests toxic atmosphere within 50 years

Bananas sprout in Rayleigh Garden UK after 15 years