2 months ago
- The Dunning-Kruger effect, first documented in 1999, describes a bias where unskilled individuals overestimate their abilities and skilled individuals underestimate theirs, but it is often misunderstood as 'dumb people not knowing they're dumb'.
- Dr. David Dunning emphasizes the effect applies to everyone in areas of low competence, not just 'dumb people', and reflects a need for humility.
- Recent critiques, including studies by Dr. Ed Nuhfer and others, suggest the effect may be a statistical artifact rather than a true psychological bias, as it can be replicated using random data.
- The effect's classic graph, plotting self-assessment versus performance by quartiles, can be closely mimicked by random computer-generated data when measurement error is high, undermining its validity.
- Critics argue that the unreliability of self-assessment measurements explains the apparent effect, and no scientific finding improves with increased measurement error, casting doubt on the Dunning-Kruger effect's reality.